2009-10 Bowl Preview- Part II

Hey All,
I hope you're all enjoying your Holidays. Here's the column you love to read, Notes on a Pac 10 Scorecard. (We still miss you, Alan Malamud.)

Let's take a look at the next 12 bowl games on the slate for 2009-10.

Eaglebank Bowl: UCLA (6-6) V. Temple (9-3)
Dec. 29, Washington, DC, 4:30 PM EST (ESPN)
UCLA: This is a UCLA squad that has been a true 6-6 team. I see good things and bad things in this squad. The good things are UCLA's defense led by LB Reggie Carter, DT Brian Price and their kicking game led by PK Kai Forbath and his 55+ yard leg. The bad is UCLA's whole offense. This offense just doesn't click. The bRuins have used three QBs this year and none of them have done well. I've looked at the stats here. The defense must score for UCLA to win this game.
TU: Owls HC Al Golden was turned down for the UCLA job a little while back and all he's done since then is take a woeful Temple programa nd turn them into a nine game winner in the MAC. Outside of USC RB coach Todd McNair, can you even name anyone who's ever played for Temple? Maybe you can, but I can't. That's how remarkable it is that the Owls are 9-3. TB Bernard Pierce leads the Owls offense rushing for 119 YPG. That means he's gone for a little over 1,300 yards this season and scored 15 TDs. Temple is a very solid MAC team.
Prediction: I see UCLA's offense sputtering, while the bRuin defense turns in a heroic effort and loses, 12-9.

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green (7-5) V. Idaho (7-5)
Dec. 30, Boise, ID, 4:30 PM EST (ESPN)
BG: The Falcons throw the ball a lot and WR Freddie Barnes seems to catch a lot of those throws. Barnes leads the country in receptions with 138, and TDs with 16. He's third in receiving yards at 1,551 for the season. While BG can pass, they can't run or stop the run well. They like to get in shootouts with their foes. A note of irony; The Falcons are playing this bowl game on the blue turf at Boise State. The Falcons hosted Boise State in their fourth game of the year and were smashed, 49-14.
ID: The Vandals have risen from the dead to finish with a winning record and go to a bowl game for the first time this decade and only the second time in school history. Idaho can run the ball as well as throw it. QB Nate Enderle has been good all season, but TB Demaundray Woolridge keeps the team moving. He only averages about 70 YPG on the ground, but his combination of running and receiving skills keeps the Vandals in a lot of games. The Vandals are looking to break a season-ending three game losing streak in this bowl game.
Prediction: Idaho feeds off the hometown crowd and overwhlems Bowling Green, 43-31.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Arizona (8-4) V. Nebraska (9-4)
Dec. 30, San Diego, CA, 8:00 PM EST (ESPN)
UofA: The Wildcat faithful ringed the field as the clock ran down. Everyone in Tuscon was sniffing Roses, then Oregon pulled out a late second win and sent the Wildcats on a path to this bowl. Oh, so close yet... Well, after that crushing loss tom UO, the Wildcats won their last two games of the year with a good defense and just enough offense to get by. So, I don't think UofA will have a problem getting up forn this game. They want to send a message for 2010. So why not take down the team that came :01 away from Big XII title? The big question for the Wildcats is can they contain Ndamukong Suh enough so they can run the ball? It's that simple. If UofA can run, then they can pass, and then they can win. RB's Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin need to have big games.
N: Wow, a Texas friendly "official review" kept the Huskers out of a BCS bowl. I think the boys from Lincoln will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. We all know Ndamukong Suh is almost unstoppable. So, what else do they Huskers have? The Huskers have QB Zac Lee and RB Roy Helu, Jr. Lee's thrown for 1,970 yards and 13 TDs this year but his 10 interceptions have hurt Nebraska this year. Meanwhile, Helu, Jr. led the Huskers rushing attack with 1,139 yards and 10 TDs of his own.
Prediction: Arizona wins this defensive battle on an Alex Zendejas field goal, 17-14.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (10-3) V. Air Force (7-5)
Dec. 31, Fort Worth, TX, 12:00 PM EST (ESPN)
UH: The Cougars have 10 wins and ended up here because they couldn't finish off East Carolina in the C-USA title game. The Cougars feature QB Case Keenum and his aerial circus. Check out these numbers. Keenum has completed 468 out of 659 passes for 5,449 yards and 43 TDs this season. The most impressive stat is that he's only thrown nine interceptions. That means his INT percentage is 1.3 percent. Wow. So, how good was East Carolina's defense when they picked off three of his passes in the C-USA title game? So, we know UH will thorwn from the time they get off the bus, but their defense is the key to this game. Can they play with the discipline required to stop Air Force's option attack? The Cougars are 111 out of 120 in rushing defense, while Air Force is ranked number 3 in the nation in rushing offense. Hmmmmmm.
USAFA: The Falcons are the polar opposite of the Cougars. They run the option and they run the ball a lot. How often do they run the ball? Well, the Falcons didn't qualify to be ranked in passing efficiency by the NCAA because they didn't average 15 passes attempted per game. By running the option, USAFA takes time off the clock and limits the number posessions a team gets in a game. They also play defense pretty well. We know that Houston comes into this game with the top passing offense in the country, but did you know that Air Force is the number one passing defense in America? This looks like a really good game to watch.
Prediction: I really like Air Force in the upset here. Falocns win it, 23-16.

Brut Sun Bowl: Oklahoma (7-5) V. Stanford (8-4)
Dec. 31, El Paso, TX. 2:00 PM EST (CBS)
OU: I know USC's season has been a big disappointment, but the Oklahoma faithful have to be on suicide watch. They were supposed to be hitting on all cyclinders this year, then they had to play that first game. BYU smashed Sam Bradford's shoulder an OU's season in one play. OU since then has lived and died with the arm of QB Landry Jones. When He's on, OU can roll, when he's not, they lose. He's thrown for six TDs in a game this year and also five interceptions in another. It's simple to see that he needs to have a big game here.
SU: He almost won the Heisman, he runs like a runaway freight train, and can throw a pass too. He is Toby Gerhart and he will be the focus of the Oklahoma defense. OU is ranked seventh in the nation at stopping the run. You know you're gonna see eight and nine guys up at the line of scrimmage to stop Gerhart. So like with the Sooners, this game falls on the shoulders of the QB. With Andrew Luck sidelined with a bad finger, can backup Tavita Pritchard keep the Cardinal in the game? I don't think so.
Prediction: With Luck out, Stanford is out of luck. OU wins, 23-10.

Texas Bowl: Navy (8-4) V. Missouri (8-4)
Dec 31, Houston, TX, 3:30 EST (ESPN)
USNA: Watching Navy run the option is a pleasure. It's even a bigger pleasure to watch after I heard about the philosophy of the offense from HC Ken Niumatalolo. He equated the option to Judo, as in the fact that in Judo, the object is to use you opponents weight and strengths against him with great counter moves that constantly keeps your opponent confused and off balance. So this offense has a counter for every defensive set it sees. The only thing that stops it is poor execution. It's fun to watch this offense unfold during a game. The key to this game for the midshipmen is executing well, so that they can control the clock and keep the Missouri offense off the field.
M: Missouri's rushing defense must do the job for the Tigers to win this game. If they hold Navy in check, then QB Blaine Gilbert and RB Derick Washington will get their chance to open this game up. Gilbert threw for 2,300 yards and 23 TDs this season, while Washington ran for 803 yards and 10 TDs this season.
Prediction: The Tigers defense will hold Navy in check, Missouri 31, Navy 19.

Insight Bowl: Minnesota (6-6) V. Iowa State (6-6)
Dec. 31, Tempe, AZ 6:00 PM EST (NFL Network)
MINN: This is the third time in four season that the Golden Gophers are playing in this bowl. Last year they lost 42-41 to Kansas and in 2006, the Gophers fourth quarter collapse v. Texas Tech HC Glen Mason is job. So, how have this program gone since they fired Mason? Not far. The Gophers top WR, Eric Decker missed four games this year and still led the team in receptions, yards, and receiving TDs. This team finished 8th in the Big Ten and last in the Big Ten in scoring offense, putting up 21 PPG. As for the Gopher defense, the good news is that it ranks 52 places higher than their offense according to the NCAA stat boys. The bad thing is that the offense is ranked 113th out of 120. Wow.
ISU: How these guys beat Nebraska, 9-7 is beyond me. The Cyclones don't have much of an offense. Iowa does like to run the ball with RB Alexander Robinson lugging the leather most of the time. QB Austen Arnaud has some good moments this season, but it's been an up and down year for him. However, that is expected from a 6-6 ball club. The Cyclones ability to play inspired ball for stretches at a time can male this game interesting.
Prediction: Minnesota should get the Insight Bowl monkey off their backs and win, but my gut is telling me that Iowa State wins a squeaker, 24-22.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech (9-3) V. Tennessee (7-5)
Dec. 31, Atlanta, GA, 7:30 EST (ESPN)
VT: The Tech offense runs on the legs of RB Ryan Williams. His 128 YPG game keep the chains moving, opens up the passing game and puts points on the board. However, the VaTech Defense is the true strength of the team. The stop the pass well, allow only about 15 PPG, and run very well to the ball. They are more than capable of stopping the Volunteer offense.
UT: Which Volunteeer team will show up? The one that lost to UCLA or the one that manhandled Mississippi? The men in orange have a tough defense which keeps the team in games, but it's the poor execution of their offense that loses games. Tennessee needs big games from QB Jonathan Crompton and RB Montario Hardesty to get a win here.
Prediction: Despite a good game from the Tennesee defense, the Hokies get the victory, 23-10.

Outback Bowl: Northwestern (8-4) V. Auburn (7-5)
Jan. 1, Tampa, FL 11:00 AM EST (ESPN)
NW: The Wildcats started off poorly this season, but have won their last three games. Two of those last three wins were over Iowa and Wisconsin. The Wildcats are also the only Big Ten team that runs the spread offense. The Wildcats can put yards and points up in bunches behind the arm and legs of QB Ben Kafka. NU is pretty decent on defense, but hasn't faced the kind of speed that Auburn has all year.
AU: The Tigers do what Northwestern does, only they do it better. Auburn owns the edge in every statisical category coming into this game. 'nuff said.
Prediction: Auburn gets a scare from Northwestern, but pulls away at the end, 38-21.

Capital One Bowl: Penn State (10-2) V. LSU (9-3)
Jan. 1, Orlando, FL 1:00 PM EST (ESPN)
PSU: This is a Nittany Lion team that has won 10 games wiithout any of those wins being memorable. A weak nonconference slate of Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois doesn't make me think these Lions can handle LSU. PSU lost their only two big games to Iowa and Ohio State. I see nothing impressive about this team, yet they are favored by three points. Huh?
LSU: The LSU defense has collapsed as of late giving up almost 400 yards a game. They also rank 108th in the nation in total offense. QB Jordan Jefferson can either be great or horrible and the TB situation at LSU is in the air since Charles Scott broke his collarbone in November. Will he play? Will he not? We don't know. So, now I see why PSU is favored by three points.
Prediction: I know it's sounds wrong, but I'll take the Penn State here. The Nittany Lions win, 24-16.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: West Virginia (9-3) V. Florida State (6-6)
Jan. 1, Jacksonville, FL 1:00 EST (CBS)
WVU: The Mountaineer offense is a pretty good one. RB Noel Devine ran for 1,372 yards and 12 TDs while QB Jarrett Brown threw for 2,129 yards and 11TDs. The 'Eeers aren't to bad on defense either, but this really doesn't matter because this game all comes down to state of mind that FSU brings into this game.
FSU: The administration got its' way and forced out HC Bobby Bowden. This is his last game roaming the sidelines for the Seminoles. 34 season, awesome teams, and a few national titles. Emotions will be running high in front of a raucous Seminole-friendly crowd. Hmmmmmm...
Prediction: I think the Seminoles come and win one for the old man. FSU 29- WVU 25.

Until next week folks, you have to get to the QB to stop the run-and-shoot.
-The Commissioner