2009-10 Bowl Preview- Part I

Hey All!

It's time for the one thing you really like reading each week, Notes on a Pac 10 Scorecard. (We still miss you, Alan Malamud.)

Let's take a look at the first 12 games. Take a look at my fearless predictions and we'll see how I stack up as a prognosticator when the bowls are over.

New Mexico Bowl : Fresno State (8-4) V. Wyoming (6-6)
Dec. 19, Albuquerque, NM 4:30 EST (ESPN)
FSU: Bulldogs TB Ryan Mathews ran for 1,664 yards and 17 TDs as the spearhead of the nation's 7th best rushing offense. The Bulldogs also have played a typically nightmarish schedule which usually makes theM a tough bowl team.
WYO: The Cowboys are a 6-6 squad making their first bowl appearance since beating UCLA, 24-21 in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl. The Cowboys six wins came against a weak schedule. In fact, only one of the Pokes wins came against a team that finished with a winning record, and that team was 1-AA Weber State that finished their season at 7-5.
Prediction: The Bulldogs are too tough for these Cowboys to handle, FSU rolls 38-17.

St. Petersburg Bowl: UCF (8-4) V. Rutgers (8-4)
Dec 19, St. Petersburg, FL, 8:00 EST (ESPN)
RU: The Scarlet Knights spent most of the season under the radar after being smashed at home by Cincinnati. Throw in a head scratcher of a loss to Syracuse and you see why nobody really saw any of Rutgers eight wins. The boys from New Jersey win their games with a strong defense and just enough offense to get by.
UCF: The Golden Knights piled up eight wins without anyone paying much attention either. However, UCF was one fourth quarter interception away from making it to the C-USA title game. UCF's defense is the key to this game. It ranks #4 in the nation against the run and #112 against the pass. Can UCF slow down Rutgers passing game enough to get a win?
Prediction: The Scarlet Knights get just eough offense to squeak by the Golden Knights, 17-16.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss (7-5) V. Middle Tennessee St. (9-3) Dec. 20, New Orleans, LA, 8:30 EST (ESPN)
USM: The Golden Eagles expected more out of this season and didn't get it. Two close losses to Houston and East Carolina put the Eagles back in this bowl for the second year in a row. QB Martevious Young has thrown for 1,590 yards this year along with an impressive TD to INT ratio of 13 to 1. USM is no great shakes on defense, but the key to the game for USM is their mindset coming into the game after having a disappointing regular season.
MTSU: The Blue Raiders went 5-7 last year and are thrilled to be in the second bowl game in school history. QB Dwight Dasher has had a pretty good season running the spread offense. He threw for 2,627 yards and 21 TDs while running for 953 yards and 11 TDs. He may have a field day against USM's 113th ranked pass defense.
Prediction: The Blue Raiders will soar past the Eagles to a big win. MTSU takes it, 42-24.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon State (8-4) V. BYU (8-4)
Dec. 22, Las Vegas, NV 8:00 EST (ESPN)
OSU: The Beavers are looking back on a season of coulda, shoulda, wouldas after watching their chance at the Rose Bowl slip away at Autzen Stadium a couple of weeks ago. They now are stuck in this bowl because no other bowl with a Pac 10 tie-in wanted them. The Beavers should be real angry coming into this game. As for the Xs and Os, we all know the Beavers will only go as far as the Rodgers brothers will take them.
BYU: How bored/jaded can you get as a team when you go to the same lower tier bowl five season in a row? We'll find out how BYU handles it soon. The Cougars are one bad day against TCU from a shot at a BCS bowl. SR QB Max Hall grabs most of the headlines and may grab them in this game as he faces OSU's 87th ranked pass defense.
Prediction: Everything points to BYU winning, but I think OSU wins the trench battle and the game, 26-21.

San Diego Co. CU Poinsettia Bowl: Utah (9-3) V. California (8-4)
Dec. 23, San Diego, CA 8:00 EST (ESPN)
UTAH: The Utes didn't have enough to go undefeated again, but they still played good football. The Utes defense ranks among the best in the nation in almost every category. They aren't too bad on offense either. TB Eddie Wide ran over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs, while QB Terrance Cain threw for 1,624 yards and 11 TDs of his own. You can also throw in the fact that the Utes have won five straight bowls. The Utes will a tough bowl opponent.
CAL: What Golden Bear team will show up? The one that wins by three TDs a game or the one that loses by four TDs a game? I've never seen a team this year where mindset rules over talent more than the 2009 Golden Bears. We know Cal's Offense can light up a scoreboard when clicking and how dominant their defense can be when motivated. Will they be motivated in this game? I don't know.
Prediction: Utah will be prepared and will beat a listless bunch of Bears, 34-15.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada (8-4) V. SMU (7-5)
Dec. 24, Honolulu, HI, 8:00 EST (ESPN)
SMU: June Jones comes back to Hawaii with a bowl team in tow. What a story! Jones gets SMU to their first bowl since the death penalty and he comes back to get a win in his old stomping ground. Too bad it won't happen. The run and shoot looked like the chuck and duck sometimes this year as Mustang QB Bo Levi Mitchell threw for only 1,725 yards, 12 TDs, and 10 interceptions. The Mustangs defense hasn't helped the cause much either. The SMU defense ranks 100 out of 120 teams in the FBS.
UN: The Wolfpack come into this game boasting three 1,000 yards rushers, a QB that's thrown for over 1,800 yards and a defense that can't stop the pass. Sounds like this one might be a shootout.
Prediction: The kids from Nevada win this shootout, 53-37

Little Caesars Bowl: Marshall (6-6) V. Ohio (9-4)
Dec. 26, Detroit, MI, 1:00 PM EST (ESPN)
MU: The Thundering Herd win my award for least interesting team in a bowl. They are a little below average in every statistical category and have no outstanding players. ZZZZzzzzzz.
Ohio: The Bobcats' offense isn't much to talk about as they win their games by playing strong pass defense and forcing a lot of turnovers. Ohio ranks sixth in the nation in turnover margin averaging +1 per game.
Prediction: The Bobcats keep the Thundering Herd from Thundering, 17-6.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Pitt (9-3) V. North Carolina (8-4)
Dec. 26, Charlotte, NC, 4:30 PM EST (ESPN)
PITT: Two devastating losses in their last two games have to take their toll on this team. This is a game that will hinge on the Panthers' state of mind at kickoff. If the Panthers do show up, then RB Dion Lewis will lead the way. He comes in the game as the nation's third leading rusher with 1,695 yards and 16 TDs. QB Bill Stull is pretty good too. he's thrown for 2,470 yards, 21 TDs and only eight interceptions.
UNC: The Tar Heels are a schizophrenic bunch. They looked great in wins over Va. Tech and Miami, and awful in losses to Virginia and NC State. However they have won five of their last six games and are peaking at the right time.
Prediction: North Carolina upsets the out of sorts Panthers, 28-27.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College (8-4) V. USC (8-4)
Dec. 26, San Francisco, CA, 8:00 PM EST (ESPN)
BC: The Eagles are thrilled to be in this game facing USC. The Eagles are looking to this game as a test as to how far their program has come this season. The Eagles have reached 8-4 by virute of a defense that allows 104 rusing YPG, and about 20 PPG. Offensively, 25-year old freshman QB Dave Shinskie threw for a little over 1,800 yards, 14 TDs, and 13 interceptions. TB Montel Harris keeps the offense moving by rushing for 113 YPG. He's what USC hates to see, he's small and quick.
USC: The Trojans are embarrassed to be here. Eight wins isn't much to celebrate around Trojanland. The Xs and Os don't matter in this game as much as the Johnnys and the Joes. Will USC get up for a lower tier bowl at a baseball stadium? We shall see.
Prediction: Everything points to a BC win, but I can't pick against USC. Trojans escape with a win, 28-18.

Gaylord Hotel Music City Bowl: Kentucky (7-5) V. Clemson (8-5)
Dec. 27, Nashville, TN, 8:30 PM EST (ESPN)
UK: The Wildcats are one of the ten SEC teams to get a bowl game. The Wildcats went a paltry 3-5 in SEC play with a defense that ranks 100th nationally against the run, allowing 183 YPG. That just doesn't sound good.
C: Speaking of running, RB C.J. Spiller must be salivating over getting to play against the UK run defense. I think this game is that simple.
Prediction: The Wildcats won't be able to hold that tiger, Clemson runs away, 31-10.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6 V. Georgia (7-5)
Dec. 28, Shreveport, LA, 5:00 PM EST (ESPN2)
TAMU: QB Jerrod Johnson has put up big numbers this year. He's thrown for 3,217 yards, 28 TDs and only 6 interceptions. As a team the Aggies have a third down conversion rate of over 50%. That's great. Problem is, the Aggie defense is a sieve that gives up 33 points and over 430 YPG. That's why they are a 6-6 team.
UGA: The Bulldogs have a lot better defnese than the Aggies, but their offense lags at times. QB Joe Cox has shown he can move the team down the field, but his 14 interceptions to 22 TDs is not a good thing.
Prediction: I think Georgia's defense makes enough key plays to claim a victory, 34-27.

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami (9-3) V. Wisconsin (9-3)
Dec. 29, Orlando, FL, 8:00 PM EST (ESPN)
TheU: The 'Canes put themselves back on the football map this season behind the arm of Jacory Harris and the legs of their three headed RB monster that goes by the names Griag Cooper, Damien Berry, and Javarris James. Big wins over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma show just how good this team can play.
WIS: The Badgers are who we thought they were. They run the ball well with big John Clay and his 1,396 yards and 16 TDs. They also stop the run well and are your prototypical Big Ten team. They play physical, on both sides of the ball, but have no speed.
Prediction: Miami will make a statement for the 2010 season and spank the Badgers, 37-7.

Until next week folks, remember, you have to play assigment football to properly defend against the triple option.

-The Commissioner